Accurate weather: summer ends warm, fall starts cool

Today is the last full day of summer 2022 and temperatures will reflect a hot summer day in mid to late September. The high pressure area to the west and south keeps the region dry and warm. This will persist until early Thursday before a cold front passes and changes all that.

The cold front should arrive in the early afternoon of Thursday and be accompanied by some gusty winds and some rain.

The rain is not expected to be very overwhelming except for the extreme SE corner of the visualization where the Storm Prediction Center has placed a marginal hazard label in this region. Gusty winds can reach severe levels of 57 mph for a brief period during the afternoon. Other than this region, the big story is the cooling.

Temperature readings so far this week have been around 10-12 degrees above normal, but on Friday high temperatures will be in the upper 60s in the NRV and Highlands and low 70s everywhere somewhere else. The winds will start to ease on Friday and we should be well prepared for a calm Saturday.

Sunday seems to bring rain as another front arrives. This rain should be a little more widespread, and be intermittent during the day. Originally thought to arrive late on Sunday and linger until Monday, the latest model races have rain on Sunday. Since there is a monster hurricane in the western Atlantic this weekend, the timing of the rain could very well change again as the heavy cyclone called Fiona could slow any eastward movement of our weather patterns.

Here are the latest coordinates for Major Hurricane Fiona, as well as the development of two other tropical disturbances.

Gaston goes up the North Atlantic

A few other waves continue to develop, notably the wave near Venezuela. This feature could become the first hurricane-status tropical cyclone to make landfall in the United States later this month.

I’m also starting to watch the Foliage Reports that are coming out now.

The leaves are changing, not all but some, and we may be looking at a dynamic year. We had a relatively warm spring and about average rainfall, and fairly consistent rainfall through the summer limiting any drought conditions. I will go with a dynamic year of the season, and we are due.

The combination of a warm, humid spring, an absence of summer drought, and warm, sunny fall days appear to produce the brightest leaf color. Warm, sunny days and cool, cool nights tend to produce the best reds.

Be careful
John Carroll
Chief Meteorologist

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