Cyclone blog – Dave G Plus http://davegplus.com/ Wed, 21 Sep 2022 23:05:01 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=5.9.3 https://davegplus.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/default-138x136.png Cyclone blog – Dave G Plus http://davegplus.com/ 32 32 Accurate weather: summer ends warm, fall starts cool https://davegplus.com/accurate-weather-summer-ends-warm-fall-starts-cool/ Wed, 21 Sep 2022 23:05:01 +0000 https://davegplus.com/accurate-weather-summer-ends-warm-fall-starts-cool/ Today is the last full day of summer 2022 and temperatures will reflect a hot summer day in mid to late September. The high pressure area to the west and south keeps the region dry and warm. This will persist until early Thursday before a cold front passes and changes all that. The cold front […]]]>

Today is the last full day of summer 2022 and temperatures will reflect a hot summer day in mid to late September. The high pressure area to the west and south keeps the region dry and warm. This will persist until early Thursday before a cold front passes and changes all that.

The cold front should arrive in the early afternoon of Thursday and be accompanied by some gusty winds and some rain.

The rain is not expected to be very overwhelming except for the extreme SE corner of the visualization where the Storm Prediction Center has placed a marginal hazard label in this region. Gusty winds can reach severe levels of 57 mph for a brief period during the afternoon. Other than this region, the big story is the cooling.

Temperature readings so far this week have been around 10-12 degrees above normal, but on Friday high temperatures will be in the upper 60s in the NRV and Highlands and low 70s everywhere somewhere else. The winds will start to ease on Friday and we should be well prepared for a calm Saturday.

Sunday seems to bring rain as another front arrives. This rain should be a little more widespread, and be intermittent during the day. Originally thought to arrive late on Sunday and linger until Monday, the latest model races have rain on Sunday. Since there is a monster hurricane in the western Atlantic this weekend, the timing of the rain could very well change again as the heavy cyclone called Fiona could slow any eastward movement of our weather patterns.

Here are the latest coordinates for Major Hurricane Fiona, as well as the development of two other tropical disturbances.

Gaston goes up the North Atlantic

A few other waves continue to develop, notably the wave near Venezuela. This feature could become the first hurricane-status tropical cyclone to make landfall in the United States later this month.

I’m also starting to watch the Foliage Reports that are coming out now.

The leaves are changing, not all but some, and we may be looking at a dynamic year. We had a relatively warm spring and about average rainfall, and fairly consistent rainfall through the summer limiting any drought conditions. I will go with a dynamic year of the season, and we are due.

The combination of a warm, humid spring, an absence of summer drought, and warm, sunny fall days appear to produce the brightest leaf color. Warm, sunny days and cool, cool nights tend to produce the best reds.

Be careful
John Carroll
Chief Meteorologist

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Accurate weather: the warmer than normal cycle continues https://davegplus.com/accurate-weather-the-warmer-than-normal-cycle-continues/ Mon, 19 Sep 2022 20:46:23 +0000 https://davegplus.com/accurate-weather-the-warmer-than-normal-cycle-continues/ The persistent pattern of warm days and balmy nights will continue, but today we are blessed with some showers in the Highlands. Other than this area, the area will again, be on the quiet, dry side of the street. Highs for the next two days will be much warmer than normal as we close out […]]]>

The persistent pattern of warm days and balmy nights will continue, but today we are blessed with some showers in the Highlands. Other than this area, the area will again, be on the quiet, dry side of the street.

Highs for the next two days will be much warmer than normal as we close out the last days of summer 2022. The Autumnal Equinox occurs Thursday at 9:04 a.m. when direct sunlight is overhead. equator. The days will be shorter than the nights and the trees will continue to block the production of chlorophyll and let the colors red, yellow and orange appear.

Warmer than normal weather is expected Tuesday and Wednesday as the region continues to be bathed in sunshine and protected from rain by the high dome.

Thursday will see a cold front cross the Commonwealth which will mark a noticeable change in the pattern. There won’t be much humidity to work with but showers are expected, but the numbers will be low in the rain gauges. The most significant result of this frontal passage will be cooler air behind the forehead. Highs will be in the 70s for Friday highs.

The summit brewing for the end of the week will also help keep Major Hurricane Fiona offshore. This is important as the tropical cyclone is expected to be a category four by the time it passes the Carolina coast (well offshore but choppy waves can be expected).

The leaves are changing, not all but some, and we may be looking at a dynamic year. We had a relatively warm spring and about average rainfall and fairly consistent rainfall over the summer limiting any drought conditions. I will go with a dynamic year of the season, and we are due.

The combination of a warm, humid spring, an absence of summer drought, and warm, sunny fall days appear to produce the brightest leaf color. Warm, sunny days and cool, cool nights tend to produce the best reds.

Be careful
John Carroll
Chief Meteorologist

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Thunderstorm chances increase by Saturday evening; Bad weather is possible https://davegplus.com/thunderstorm-chances-increase-by-saturday-evening-bad-weather-is-possible/ Sat, 17 Sep 2022 17:20:50 +0000 https://davegplus.com/thunderstorm-chances-increase-by-saturday-evening-bad-weather-is-possible/ A few spotty showers and an isolated thunderstorm are possible in Minnesota and western Wisconsin by mid-afternoon, then thunderstorm chances increase late Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening as a low-pressure system enters the region. western Minnesota. At this point, the daylight hours on Sunday seem pretty quiet. Severe Weather Outlook The NWS Storm Prediction Center […]]]>

A few spotty showers and an isolated thunderstorm are possible in Minnesota and western Wisconsin by mid-afternoon, then thunderstorm chances increase late Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening as a low-pressure system enters the region. western Minnesota.

At this point, the daylight hours on Sunday seem pretty quiet.

Severe Weather Outlook

The NWS Storm Prediction Center shows a slight risk (shaded in yellow) of severe weather in parts of northern Minnesota later Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening:

Saturday night severe weather outlook for Minnesota and Wisconsin

NWS Storm Prediction Center/NWS Twin Cities

Low risk means scattered severe thunderstorms are possible. An isolated severe thunderstorm is possible very late this afternoon and evening in the dark green shaded area, including the Twin Cities.

You can track showers and thunderstorms on the new interactive radar on the MPR News weather page. You can pan and zoom the radar view on our site to see rain at your location, throughout Minnesota, western Wisconsin and beyond.

We’ve updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio News Network and the MPR News live weather blog.

Temperature trends

The average high temperature for our twin cities is 73 degrees this time of year. Saturday afternoon highs will reach the lower 80s in parts of the Twin Cities metro area, southern Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin. Much of Minnesota will have highs on Saturday in the 70s, but far northern Minnesota will have highs in the 60s. Dew points will be sticky this Saturday in central and southern Minnesota as well as in the western Wisconsin.

Sunday highs will be mostly in the 70s, with a few 60s in northeast Minnesota:

rt0918h10

Highs expected on Sunday

National Weather Service

Many areas will have Sunday afternoon dew points in the 50s, with sticky 60s in southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin:

rt0918h8

Sunday 1 p.m. dew point forecast

National Weather Service

Back to high temperatures, highs for the Twin Cities metro area are expected to be around 80 degrees on Monday, followed by high 80s on Tuesday, low 70s on Wednesday and low 60s on Thursday and Friday.

We are not expecting extreme heat or cold during the last week of September. The NWS Climate Prediction Center shows a trend of near-normal temperatures across most of Minnesota and Wisconsin from September 24-30:

rt0917ext

Temperature outlook for September 24 to September 30

NWS Climate Prediction Center

Fiona will become a hurricane on Sunday

rt0917sat

Fiona Saturday Morning Satellite Loop

NOAA

Tropical Storm Fiona is expected to become a hurricane this weekend. A hurricane warning has been issued for Puerto Rico.

Here’s the latest update on Fiona, from the National Hurricane Center:

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fiona Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 1100 AM AST Sat 17 Sep 2022 …HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO… …HEAVY RAINS LIKELY TO PRODUCE FLOODS AND LANDSLIDES BACKGROUND IN PARTS OF PUERTO RICO. .. SUMMARY INFORMATION FROM 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC… ——————————— – ————- LOCATION…16.3N 63.5W APPROXIMATELY 130 MI…210 KM SE OF ST. CROSS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H CURRENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS ——————– CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A hurricane warning has been issued for Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra. A hurricane watch has been issued for the US Virgin Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A hurricane warning is in effect for… * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra A hurricane watch is in effect for… * United States Virgin Islands * South Coast of Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano west to Cabo Caucedo * North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano west to Puerto Plata A tropical storm warning is in effect for… * Saba and Saint -Eustache * Saint-Martin * Guadeloupe, Saint-Barthélemy and Saint-Martin * United States Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano west to Cabo Caucedo * North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano west to Puerto Plata A tropical storm watch is in effect for… hurricane are expected somewhere in the warning area. A warning is usually issued 36 hours before the first expected occurrence of tropical storm-force winds, conditions that make outdoor preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property must be completed in haste. A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area. A watch is usually issued 48 hours before the first expected occurrence of tropical storm-force winds, conditions that make outdoor preparations difficult or dangerous. A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning zone within 36 hours. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area, usually within 48 hours. Interests in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas are expected to monitor Fiona’s progress. For storm information specific to your region in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your region outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your National Weather Service. DISCUSSION AND PERSPECTIVES ———————- Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the center of Fiona s reformed further east. As of 11:00 a.m. AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was located near latitude 16.3 north and longitude 63.5 west. Fiona is moving west at almost 8 mph (13 km/h). A west-northwestward motion at a similar speed is expected to begin later in the day, followed by a northwesterly turn by Sunday evening. On the forecast track, Fiona’s center is expected to move near or south of the Virgin Islands tonight, approach Puerto Rico tonight, and move near or over Puerto Rico Sunday evening. Fiona is then expected to move near the Dominican Republic on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next few days and Fiona is expected to become a hurricane by Sunday or Sunday evening as it moves near Puerto Rico. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 km from the center. Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicates that the minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 in). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ———————- Key messages for Tropical Storm Fiona can be found in the tropical cyclone discussion under the heading AWIPS MIATCDAT2 and OMM WTNT42 KNHC header and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in Puerto Rico Sunday and Sunday evening and are possible in the US Virgin Islands this evening. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Dominican Republic hurricane watch area Sunday evening and Monday. Tropical storm conditions will continue over parts of the Leeward Islands in the warning area until this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions will reach the United States and the British Virgin Islands this afternoon, move west across Puerto Rico this evening and reach parts of the Dominican Republic Sunday evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Dominican Republic watch area Sunday evening. RAINFALL: Fiona is expected to produce the following precipitation: Leeward Islands and North Windward Islands: An additional 2-4 inches. British and US Virgin Islands: 4 to 6 inches with a local maximum of 10 inches possible. Puerto Rico: 12 to 16 inches with a local maximum of 20 inches possible, especially in eastern and southern Puerto Rico. Dominican Republic: 4 to 8 inches with a local maximum of 12 inches possible, especially on the far eastern coast. Haiti: 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches. Turks and Caicos: 4 to 6 inches. These rains are likely to produce flash and urban flooding, as well as landslides in areas of higher ground, particularly southern and eastern Puerto Rico and eastern Dominican Republic. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising water moving inland from the shore. The water could reach the following heights above the ground somewhere in the areas indicated in the land wind zones if the peak wave occurs at the time of high tide… South coast of Puerto Rico… 1 to 3 feet Vieques and Culebra… 0.1 to 3 feet US Virgin Islands… 1 to 2 feet Localized coastal flooding is also possible elsewhere in Puerto Rico. For information specific to your region, please consult the products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The storm surge will raise water levels up to 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in onshore wind areas in the Dominican Republic. SURF: The swells generated by Fiona affect the Leeward Islands, the northern Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip conditions. Please consult your local meteorological office for products.

Here is Fiona’s predicted path, including the cone of uncertainty for Fiona’s center path:

rt0917track

Fiona’s predicted trajectory

NWS National Hurricane Center

The National Hurricane Center will be posting several updates from Fiona today and in the coming days.

Weather nugget

So far this year, rainfall at International Falls is one foot above normal. Precipitation is precipitation plus the water content of the snow that fell earlier this year. Duluth’s precipitation is 2.11 inches above normal, and Twin Cities’ precipitation (measured at MSP Airport) is 6.42 inches below normal so far this year.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35am, 9:35am and 4:39pm Saturday and Sunday.

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Minimal changes to representation of #Colorado – Coyote Gulch https://davegplus.com/minimal-changes-to-representation-of-colorado-coyote-gulch/ Thu, 15 Sep 2022 13:51:11 +0000 https://davegplus.com/minimal-changes-to-representation-of-colorado-coyote-gulch/ Click on a thumbnail below to view a gallery of drought data from the US Drought Monitor website. US Drought Monitor map from September 13, 2022. High Plains Drought Monitor map for September 13, 2022. West Drought Monitor map from September 13, 2022. Colorado Drought Monitor map from September 13, 2022. Click the link to […]]]>

Click on a thumbnail below to view a gallery of drought data from the US Drought Monitor website.

Click the link to access the US Drought Monitor website. Here is an exerpt :

Summary of this week’s drought

This week US Drought Monitor (USDM) saw isolated patches of heavy rain in Southern California and the desert southwest in association with residual moisture from Tropical Cyclone Kay late last week. Over the weekend and early this week, residual moisture from the system moved further into onshore impact areas including southern California, southern Sierra Nevada, the desert southwest and parts of the Great Basin. Overall, the heaviest accumulations were seen in very isolated high elevation areas of the Peninsular Ranges and Southern California Cross-Section Ranges with accumulations ranging from 3 to 5 inches in addition to reports of gusty winds between 70 and 100 mph. Unfortunately, the overall impact of rainfall on California’s long-term drought has been negligible. In the High Plains, above normal temperatures (2 to 6 degrees F) and generally dry conditions over the past week have continued to exacerbate drought conditions in central and northern parts of the Plains, with an increasing number of drought impacts in the agricultural sector being reported to the National Center for Drought Mitigation. In Texas, areas of isolated heavy precipitation accumulations (3 to 5+ inches) this week continued to ease drought-related conditions in the Rio Grande Valley and southern Texas. In the Midwest, widespread heavy rainfall accumulations ranging from 2 to 6+ inches impacted northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin over the weekend, erasing some of the short-term rainfall deficits. Elsewhere in the region, a combination of short-term and long-term precipitation deficits in Iowa has caused the map to deteriorate, with precipitation deficits over the past 90 days ranging from 4 to 8+ inches in the south from Iowa. In the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states, widespread shower activity this week has helped improve drought-related conditions in the southern part of the Northeast region as well as easing the short-term precipitation deficits (last 30 to 60 days) in coastal areas. Plain and Piedmont of North Carolina. In the southeast, most of the region remained drought-free except for coastal areas of east-central and southern Florida, where rainfall deficits over the past 90 days ranged from 4 to 12+ inches, which has raised some concerns about hydrological drought (some low groundwater and surface water levels) with the end of the rainy season approaching. As for the summer months of 2022, the contiguous United States experienced its 3rd warmest June-August period on record since 1895 in terms of average temperatures (+2.52 degrees F anomaly). National average minimum temperatures for the August (+3.20 deg F) and July-August (+3.12 deg F) periods were the warmest on record, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) from NOAA. Precipitation in the contiguous United States in August and July-August 2022 ranked 19th and 28th wettest, respectively, placing it in the top 1/3 wettest…

High Plains

In this week’s map, degradation has taken place in parts of Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota and North Dakota in response to continued drought, declining soil moisture, poor pastures and rangelands and impacts on dryland crops. In Kansas and Nebraska, the latest 7-day flow levels showed flows well below normal, especially in Nebraska. In southern Nebraska, many gauging stations on rivers and streams observed flows in the 1st to 2nd percentile range, according to the US Geological Survey. For the week, average temperatures were above normal in the Dakotas (1 to 4 degrees F) while Nebraska, eastern Wyoming and Kansas were near normal to slightly below normal. According to the NOAA NCEI, the Great Plains region had its 5th hottest month (+2.7°F) and the driest June-August 19th on record. Statewide, Nebraska had its 3rd driest June-August as well as its 2nd driest August on record…

Colorado Drought Monitor one-week change chart ending September 13, 2022.

West

In the west, numerous large wildfires are currently burning in parts of California, Oregon and Idaho, causing evacuations, structural damage and reduced air quality. In this week’s map, some improvements have been made in Southeast California, Southern Nevada and New Mexico in response to this week’s rainfall associated with residual moisture from Tropical Cyclone Kay as well as the overall impact of this summer’s monsoon rains which helped to improve short-term meteorological drought conditions and vegetation health. Elsewhere in the region, a combination of short- and long-term drought, low flow and declining soil moisture has led to intensified drought conditions in parts of Montana and Idaho. For the week, average temperatures were 2 to 10 degrees above normal in California, the Great Basin, northern parts of Arizona and New Mexico, and parts of the Pacific Northwest. . Conversely, cloud cover associated with the remains of Kay reduced daytime warming in the deserts of southeastern California and southern parts of Arizona and New Mexico, where average temperatures were 2 to 6 degrees lower than normal. According to the NOAA NCEI, the period from June to August 2022 was the 3rd hottest on record for the Western climate region, which includes California and Nevada. Also, in terms of average minimum temperatures, the August (+5.6°F) and July-August (+4.8°F) periods were the hottest on record. In terms of precipitation, August was the 8th wettest on record for the Western climate region and the driest January-August (-6.95 inches) on record. For the southwestern climatic region, it was the 7th wettest June-August period on record and the 7th hottest for the contemporary period. In the Northwest climate region, August (+6.2 deg F) and July-August (+5.3 deg F) were the hottest on record…

South

In the South, improvements were made in isolated areas of Mississippi, Tennessee and Texas. Downgrades were made on the map in areas of Oklahoma, where rainfall deficits over the past 90-day period ranged from -3 to -7+ inches. According to Oklahoma Mesonet, the past 90 days were the 7th driest in the state with a deviation of -4.79 inches from normal (50% of normal). Over the past week, rainfall accumulations in the region have been generally light (<1 inch), with some isolated areas of Mississippi, southeastern Arkansas, Tennessee and southern Texas receiving accumulations of 2 inches. For the week, average temperatures were near normal across the region. According to the NOAA NCEI, the Southern climate region experienced its 12th wettest August on record due to well above normal rainfall in areas of Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi. For the June to August period, average temperatures for the Southern climate region ranked 5th warmest, with Texas ranking 2nd for the contemporary period…

Look forward

The NWS WPC’s 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) predicts moderate to heavy precipitation accumulations ranging from 2 to 4+ inches in Upper Midwest regions, with the heaviest amounts expected in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula and northeastern Minnesota. Likewise, accumulations of 2 to 4+ inches are expected in parts of Florida. Elsewhere, lesser accumulations ranging from 1 to 2+ inches are forecast for northern parts of New England as well as western regions including the Northern Rockies, Wasatch Range, eastern Great Basin and parts of the Southern and Central Rockies. The CPC 6-10 day forecast calls for a moderate to high chance of above normal temperatures for all areas east of the Rocky Mountains, while much of the west is expected to be cooler than normal, except for coastal areas of California. Precipitation is expected to be above normal over much of the West. Below normal rainfall is expected over most of the Eastern Tier.

US Drought Monitor one-week change chart ending September 13, 2022.

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WEATHER BLOG: Calmer than normal tropics mid-season https://davegplus.com/weather-blog-calmer-than-normal-tropics-mid-season/ Mon, 12 Sep 2022 23:38:00 +0000 https://davegplus.com/weather-blog-calmer-than-normal-tropics-mid-season/ We have just passed the climatological peak of the hurricane season. However, the tropics did not trigger as many storms as a normal tropical season. The climatological peak – or busiest time of year – for the tropical Atlantic passed last weekend on September 12. You would expect the Atlantic to be completed with activity […]]]>

We have just passed the climatological peak of the hurricane season. However, the tropics did not trigger as many storms as a normal tropical season.

The climatological peak – or busiest time of year – for the tropical Atlantic passed last weekend on September 12. You would expect the Atlantic to be completed with activity at this point.

But even though we’re in the heart of hurricane season, it’s been unusually calm so far. There are no named storms at this time, but there are a pair of tropical waves, each with a 20% chance of developing.

You can find a more detailed article on current tropical activity here.

So far this year, we’ve seen five named storms – the two most recent being hurricanes. We had Tropical Storm Alex in early June, Tropical Storm Bonnie in late June, and Tropical Storm Colin in early July.

In mid-August, Potential Tropical Cyclone Four made landfall on the Texas-Mexico border. Hurricanes Danielle and Earl both started in early September, but have both since dissipated.

After the last two hurricane seasons (2020 and 2021), this year seems much calmer. By this time last year (September 12, 2021), we had already seen 14 named storms in the Atlantic. By the end of the 2021 season, all names from the primary Atlantic hurricane list had been used.

This hurricane season has seen below average activity so far. On average, we see eight named storms, including three hurricanes and one major (category 3+) hurricane. The hyperactive 2020 and 2021 seasons had seen ten and six more named storms than normal, respectively. This year, there were only five.

So it’s true that it’s been a calmer season so far and the chances of a tropical system affecting Texas diminish as October approaches, but it’s always best to stay prepared.

It only takes a storm hitting your area to make it an active year.

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It’s Q&A Time — NOAA – Coyote Gulch https://davegplus.com/its-qa-time-noaa-coyote-gulch/ Fri, 09 Sep 2022 11:58:39 +0000 https://davegplus.com/its-qa-time-noaa-coyote-gulch/ Click the link to read the article on the NOAA website (Emily Becker): Ocean and atmospheric conditions tell us that La Niña, the cold phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate model, is currently prevailing in the tropical Pacific. It seems very likely that the long-expected third consecutive La Niña winter will occur, with […]]]>

Click the link to read the article on the NOAA website (Emily Becker):

Ocean and atmospheric conditions tell us that La Niña, the cold phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate model, is currently prevailing in the tropical Pacific. It seems very likely that the long-expected third consecutive La Niña winter will occur, with a 91% chance of La Niña until September-November and an 80% chance until early winter (November-January). ).

91%! It is very high. Why so confident?

The first reason is that La Niña is already clearly in effect in the tropical Pacific. August sea surface temperature in the Niño-3.4 region, our primary location for ENSO monitoring, was about 1.0°C (1.8°F) cooler than the long-term average, according to ERSSTv5, our favorite dataset for sea surface temperature. (“Long term” is currently 1991-2020.) That’s significantly cooler than the La Niña threshold of 0.5°C (0.9 °F) below average.

Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean from mid-June to early September 2022 relative to the long-term average. East of the International Date Line (180˚), waters remained cooler than average, a sign of La Niña. Graph from Climate.gov, based on data from NOAA’s Environmental Visualization Lab. Description of the historical reference period here.

The characteristic La Niña tropical atmospheric response—more rain and cloud over Indonesia, less over the central Pacific, and stronger-than-average winds both aloft and near the surface—was also clearly visible. active in August. Together, the ocean and atmospheric conditions tell us that La Niña is firmly in place. Once active, La Niña conditions are enhanced by feedback processes between the ocean and the atmosphere. Read more about these returns here.

La Niña feedbacks between the ocean and the atmosphere. Diagram from Climate.gov by Emily Eng and inspired by NOAA PMEL.

What else gives confidence in forecasts?

There is a significant amount of cooler than average water beneath the surface of the eastern central tropical Pacific. This groundwater will provide a cooler source of surface water for the next two months. Also, the consensus of the computer climate model predicts that La Niña will continue through the winter.

How long will La Niña last?

While there is broad agreement throughout the winter, there is a lot of uncertainty as to how long this La Niña will last and when we will see a transition to neutral conditions. The current consensus of forecasters gives La Niña the advantage from January to March (54%), with a 56% probability of neutrality for the period from February to April.

NOAA Climate Prediction Center forecasts for each of the three possible ENSO categories for the next 8 overlapping 3-month seasons. The blue bars indicate the chances of La Niña, the gray bars the chances of neutrality and the red bars the chances of El Niño. Graphic by Michelle L’Heureux.

When did previous La Niñas go neutral?

There are 24 La Niña winters in our historical record, dating back to 1950. Of these, only one (2016-17) turned neutral in December-February. Four went into neutral in January-March, one (2000-01) in February-April, two in March-May and 16 in April-June or later. Especially when you’re slicing and dicing a relatively short record, it’s hard to find truly analogous events. For example, this will be only the third La Niña triple on record, and the first not to follow a strong El Niño event.

Three-year history of sea surface temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific for the 8 existing double dip La Niña events (gray lines) and the current event (purple line). Of the previous 7 events, 2 went into La Niña in their third year (below the blue dotted line), 2 continued at or near El Niño levels (above the blue dotted line) dotted red) and three were neutral. The chart is based on monthly CPC Niño-3.4 index data using ERSSTv5. Created by Michelle L’Heureux.

All this to say that past La Niña doesn’t provide much guidance on how long this event will last. The forecasters’ current estimate, which favors an earlier than usual transition to neutral, is based on indications from a computer model.

Remind me why I should care about La Niña…?

I admit that as scientists, we are sometimes captivated by the interest of the internal mechanisms of El Niño and La Niña! But ENSO has serious practical applications. In a nutshell, La Niña and El Niño affect global atmospheric circulation patterns in (somewhat) predictable patterns, altering jet streams and storm tracks around the world and influencing temperature, rain/snow and weather conditions. tropical cyclone seasons. Since we can predict ENSO months in advance, we can get an early picture of potential future climate patterns. Of course, nothing is guaranteed with weather and climate – ENSO only “tips the balance” towards certain models. To learn more about how ENSO affects climate models, as well as why it’s so difficult to make specific predictions, check out Michelle’s post here.

Can I have examples of how La Niña can affect the North American climate?

Yes! Here is a map, followed by a list of some details.

During La Niña, the Pacific Jet Stream often meanders high in the North Pacific. Southern and interior Alaska and the Pacific Northwest tend to be cooler and wetter than average, and the southern parts of the US states from California to the Carolinas tend to be warmer and drier than average. Further north, the Ohio and upper Mississippi valleys can be wetter than usual. ImageClimate.gov.

What about global impacts?

Typical La Niña temperature and precipitation patterns during Northern Hemisphere winters (top) and summers (bottom). Map from NOAA Climate.gov, based on originals from the Climate Prediction Center. Larger images and maps for El Niño are available in this article.

That’s enough for now! Thanks!

Whenever! See you next month.

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Savannah weather records record rainfall; most since 1995 https://davegplus.com/savannah-weather-records-record-rainfall-most-since-1995/ Fri, 02 Sep 2022 16:00:48 +0000 https://davegplus.com/savannah-weather-records-record-rainfall-most-since-1995/ Hurricane season is off to a slow start in Savannah, but storm season is in full swing. Savannah saw the most August rainfall since 1995, according to National Weather Service data. The 8.31 inches of rainfall far exceeded the norm of 5.46 inches. Additionally, some parts of Savannah received significantly more rain than others – […]]]>
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#WalangPasok: class suspensions for September 2, 2022, Friday https://davegplus.com/walangpasok-class-suspensions-for-september-2-2022-friday/ Fri, 02 Sep 2022 04:24:27 +0000 https://davegplus.com/walangpasok-class-suspensions-for-september-2-2022-friday/ #WalangPasok: Updated list of work and class cancellations for September 2, 2022 (Friday) MAnila, Philippines – Several local government units and schools in the Philippines suspended classes and government work on Wednesday, September 2, 2022, due to the effects of Super Typhoon Henry. #WalangPasok Announcements Class suspensions for September 2022 Updates from Walang Pasok: September […]]]>

#WalangPasok: Updated list of work and class cancellations for September 2, 2022 (Friday)

MAnila, Philippines – Several local government units and schools in the Philippines suspended classes and government work on Wednesday, September 2, 2022, due to the effects of Super Typhoon Henry.

#WalangPasok Announcements Class suspensions for September 2022

Updates from Walang Pasok: September 2, Biyernes

(As of 10:01 p.m., September 1, 2022) Here is an updated list of cities and schools that canceled classes/work on Wednesday:

CALABARZON

Manila Metro

Bicol

Cagayan Valley

  • Batanes (all levels, private and public schools)

Center of Luzon

Cordillera Administrative Region

  • Baguio City – from preschool to elementary
  • La Trinidad, Benguet – Preschool to Elementary
  • Tuba, Benguet – Preschool to Primary

Ilocos region

  • Alaminos, Pangasinan – All levels
  • Bolinao, Pangasinan – Preschool to Elementary

Forecast Weather Issued 4:00 PM, 01 September 2022

Square Weather conditions Caused by Implications
Batanes and Babuyan Island Group Rain with gusty winds STY HENRY Possible flash floods or landslides due to moderate to heavy rain. Very light to light damage to structures and vegetation possible due to moderate to strong winds
Metro Manila, Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Western Visayas, Tarlac, Pampanga, Zambales and Bataan Cloudy skies with rain showers and scattered thunderstorms Trough of STY Henry / Southwest Monsoon Possible flash floods or landslides due to moderate to sometimes heavy rains
The rest of the country Partly cloudy to cloudy sky with rain showers or isolated thunderstorms Localized thunderstorms Possible flash floods or landslides during severe thunderstorms

Super typhoon “Henry” issued at 11:00 p.m., September 01, 2022

(Valid for distribution until the next notice which will be issued tomorrow at 5:00 a.m.)

“HENRY” CONTINUES TO SLOW OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA EAST OF BATANES
  • HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
  • heavy rainfall
  • From tonight to tomorrow: Moderate to heavy rains with, at times, probable intense rains on the Batanes and the Babuyan islands. Light to moderate with occasional heavy rain possible over Ilocos Norte, Apayao and Cagayan.
  • Saturday early in the morning until the afternoon: Moderate to heavy rain possible on the Batanes. Light to moderate with occasional heavy rain possible on the Babuyan Islands.
  • Under these conditions, isolated to scattered flooding (including flash floods) and rain-induced landslides are possible, especially in areas highly or highly susceptible to these hazards, as identified on hazard maps. and in localities with significant previous rainfall.
  • This tropical cyclone is also expected to strengthen the southwest monsoon, which could bring rains to the western part of Luzon from tomorrow. As such, the issuance of a weather advisory for the southwest monsoon is likely.
  • strong winds
  • Strong winds (a strong breeze at near gale force) will be felt in all areas where Wind Signal no. 1 is currently in effect. The possibility of hoisting a Wind Signal No. 2 is also not ruled out.
  • HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
  • Under the influence of Super Typhoon HENRY, a gale warning is in effect for the northern and eastern coast of northern Luzon. For more information, see Gale Warning #2 issued at 5:00 p.m. today.
  • Over the next 24 hours, HENRY could bring moderate to rough seas to the east coasts of Isabela (2.0 to 4.0 m), central Luzon and south Luzon (1.2 to 3.0 m). These conditions can be risky for those using small watercraft. Mariners are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea and, if possible, to avoid sailing in these conditions.
  • TRAJECTORY AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
  • Super Typhoon HENRY is expected to continue to decelerate and may become nearly stationary tomorrow morning. Tomorrow afternoon, HENRY may begin its track slowly northwest before possibly accelerating north by Saturday. On the forecast trajectory, HENRY could leave the Philippines area of ​​responsibility on Saturday evening or Sunday morning.
  • This super typhoon is expected to weaken as it continues to slow and enter its quasi-stationary phase. A short period of intensification could also occur by Sunday as HENRY heads north over the East China Sea.

Department of Education (DepEd) Course Suspension Directive:

  • DepEd Calls on parents to determine whether their children should attend school during typhoons, floods and other calamities in the absence of official announcements from DepEd.
  • In the absence of storm signal warnings, LGU is expected to announce full-day class cancellations no later than 4:30 a.m. or half-day class suspensions no later than 11:00 a.m.
  • The storm signal warning declared by PAGASA between 10:00 p.m. and 4:30 a.m. reflects the all-day cancellation of classes in the appropriate levels in the affected areas.
  • Storm signal warnings declared by PAGASA before 11:00 a.m. automatically suspend same-day afternoon classes at appropriate levels in affected areas.

*Course suspension for the tertiary level (colleges and universities) will be at the discretion of the school administration.

Guidelines on suspension of classes in the event of typhoons and other calamities
Guidelines on suspending classes in the event of typhoons and other calamities image via DepEd
Cancellation of DEPED courses
Cancellation of DEPED courses
DepEd Automatic class suspensions and cancellations
DepEd Automatic class suspensions and cancellations
DepEd Notice of Class Suspensions
DepEd Notice of Class Suspensions
DepEd Class Cancellations - PAGASA
DepEd Class Cancellations – PAGASA

Flight cancellations in the Philippines

(We are still awaiting flight updates from Philippine Airlines, Cebu Pacific and AirAsia Philippines.)

Weather Updates: Some classes on Wednesday, September 2, 2022 have been canceled in some regions due to inclement weather nationwide.

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Precise weather: September starts dry and hot https://davegplus.com/precise-weather-september-starts-dry-and-hot/ Thu, 01 Sep 2022 20:11:57 +0000 https://davegplus.com/precise-weather-september-starts-dry-and-hot/ Little change from Wednesday as the region will be under the influence of the high. Temperatures will still be warm, but humidity levels are still low, so comfort levels are tolerable. Going into the latter part of the weekend we will be cooler than normal, mainly due to showers and storms on the schedule. Friday […]]]>

Little change from Wednesday as the region will be under the influence of the high. Temperatures will still be warm, but humidity levels are still low, so comfort levels are tolerable. Going into the latter part of the weekend we will be cooler than normal, mainly due to showers and storms on the schedule.

Friday will be more or less the same but some clouds will be introduced to the area. The humidity will increase as the weekend rolls around and we head into the holidays. Expect clouds to be more widespread on Saturday and there is a chance for some showers on Sunday and Monday.

Showers can arrive over the mountains on Saturday, but most of the more widespread rain is not expected until Sunday and Monday.

There will be storms over the weekend, not a total washout, but not a very dry pattern either.

The short work week begins with rain, but on Wednesday we begin to notice the return of a hot, dry pattern. This next batch of dry air should linger for a few days.

Note: As we close out August, we are also closing out the weather summer. Here are the statistics for August at the Roanoke Regional Airport.

Meteorological autumn begins on September 1st and runs until November 30e. Meteorological seasons differ from astronomical seasons because they are based on timing in relation to the location and relationship of the Earth to the Sun. Weather seasons are best for record keeping because the period is consistent and gives better statistical analysis of a season for this reason.

The Topical Atlantic is getting interesting again. Tropical Storm Danielle has formed in the North Atlantic. This cyclone could become a hurricane shortly.

Plus, we’re keeping tabs on what Earl might become by the weekend.

Be careful
John Carroll
Chief Meteorologist

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A woman from Tarkington is going around the world on an ocean boat https://davegplus.com/a-woman-from-tarkington-is-going-around-the-world-on-an-ocean-boat/ Tue, 30 Aug 2022 21:46:13 +0000 https://davegplus.com/a-woman-from-tarkington-is-going-around-the-world-on-an-ocean-boat/ Ellen Falterman of Tarkington, Texas is ready to embark on the adventure of her life: circumnavigating the globe in an ocean-going rowboat. By Vanesa Brashier, editor@bluebonnetnews.com A Tarkington woman sets off on the voyage of her life on Saturday September 3, when she embarks on the first leg of a circumnavigation of the globe at […]]]>

Ellen Falterman of Tarkington, Texas is ready to embark on the adventure of her life: circumnavigating the globe in an ocean-going rowboat.

By Vanesa Brashier, editor@bluebonnetnews.com

A Tarkington woman sets off on the voyage of her life on Saturday September 3, when she embarks on the first leg of a circumnavigation of the globe at sea in a 22ft long ocean-going rowboat.

At 27, Ellen Falterman has already completed five biking, paddling and rowing expeditions, the most recent being a four-month, 2,700-mile rowing trip that began in Kansas City, Mo., and s finished at the Trinity River Bridge. in Moss Hill, Texas.

“I can’t imagine doing anything else with my life,” said Ellen, who works as a commercial pilot when she’s not on the water. “The only thing that scares me more than doing it is not doing it. I have found my purpose on this earth.

His world tour will begin at a place that has meaning for the Falterman family. It was on the banks of the River Trinity, near the Moss Hill Bridge, where his older brother Patrick lost his life in a tragic accident in September 2016. Using his trusted dinghy ‘Edna’, named after his deceased paternal grandmother, Ellen will pass the crash site on her way to Anahuac Bay, Texas, where she will reunite with her parents and board “Evelyn Mae”, a Rannoch Adventures ocean rowboat named in honor of his maternal grandmother.

Falterman says she chose to start in the Trinity River instead of the bay because it’s symbolic.

Ellen Falter and her Rannoch Adventures ocean rowboat

“I’m going to have to get back to the river before I start this trip,” she said.

For the past two years, Falterman has held down two jobs — as a pilot and an orderly — to save for the trip. It will take him about five years to accomplish his feat, assuming all goes as planned.

“You could probably circle the earth faster. Everything I do will depend on the water and the weather. I row about 2.5 knots per hour. On flat water, I can go about 20 miles a day, or I can go 20 miles forward and wake up to find the wind and water have carried me 20 miles back or 40 miles forward,” she said.

After reaching Anahuac Bay, Falterman will paddle out to the Intercoastal Waterway and head for the Florida Keys. From there, she plans to head southeast to Panama, hopefully passing through the Panama Canal. She then plans to head west to the islands of French Polynesia and the northern coast of Australia. Once in the Indian Ocean, she hopes to pass through the Suez Canal and avoid taking a longer route off the southern coast of Africa.

“There are a lot of pirates off the coast of Somalia. It’s a tough road,” she said.

If he manages to cross the Suez Canal, he will end up in the Mediterranean Sea before reaching the Atlantic Ocean and returning home.

“I will need a place to shelter from the hurricane seasons. I will be in Panama for a few months,” she said.

When asked if she was setting a record, Falterman said she didn’t know anyone had actually completed that particular trip in a rowboat.

“Whenever you think, ‘Why has this never been done before?’, you should be thinking, ‘If it’s not me, then who? Why not me?’ There are two sides to this coin,” she said. “There are probably reasons no one has done it before, but this is my path. I feel so good about it. Doubts are eclipsed by the light of the golden thread I am on.

Ellen Falterman braves the weather and conditions that test her body’s physical limits. The photo on the right shows the damage inflicted on his hands after a long journey.

The Rannoch Adventures ocean rowboat is 22 feet long and just over 4 feet wide. It is equipped with GPS and all the navigational devices and equipment used by sailboats, minus the sail. It has two compartments – one for sleeping and seeking refuge from the elements, and one for storing gear, drinking water, food and supplies.

“The aft cabin is quite spacious. I even have radar equipment for collision alerts. If I sleep near a shipping lane, a really loud alarm will go off and I can send a message to the ship that I’m there,” she said.

Falterman says she didn’t just buy a boat from Rannoch Adventure; she got the company’s full support.

“Charlie Pitcher, the founder of the company, wants to come and help me settle down once I arrive in Florida. They have become my ocean rowing family,” she said.

A starting game will take place on Friday. For Falterman, it will be a chance to spend more time with her parents and her new fiancé, who proposed to her just two weeks ago.

“The engagement is a whole other element that has been added to this trip. Now it’s a love story. It’s not just my reckless adventure. I feel like that’s the only thing I was missing. Now I have something more to come home to,” she said.

The couple met at the most likely place for Falterman – a river.

“We met on the Missouri River. He is a carpenter who built boats. He came to Texas and did a lot of really good work on the boat for me,” she said. “The prize after this trip will be our wedding.”

Falterman will share news of her trip on her blog, Ellen Magellan Expeditions, https://www.ellenmagellanexpeditions.com/. To follow his journey, click the link on his homepage and enter your email address. Subscribers will receive a bi-weekly update by email.

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