Hurricane Prediction with Central Pacific Hurricane Center

HONOLULU (KHON2) — Hurricane season began June 1 and ends November 30. Meteorologist Chevy Chevalier interviewed Tom Birchard, a hurricane forecaster at the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, during Wake Up 2Day on Tuesday, June 7.

The pair discussed forecasts for the 2022 hurricane season, as well as the center’s methods for forecasting hurricanes in the central Pacific basin.

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Forecasts for the 2022 Central Pacific hurricane season call for a below normal season with only 2-4 tropical cyclones potentially impacting the region. Birchard stressed that residents shouldn’t let their guard down because “it only takes one storm.” have a negative impact on Hawaii. Preparing now could make all the difference in protecting life and property.

Birchard also explained hurricane forecasting training and their methods at CPHC when it comes to tropical cyclones.

Birchard and the other CPHC hurricane experts have extensive experience with tropical cyclones in the Pacific. He also explained how and when CPHC requests assistance from Hurricane Hunter and how critical their storm data is in the forecasting process.

This year marks the 30th anniversary of Hurricane Iniki. Iniki made landfall on September 11, 1992 as a Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 145 mph. When Iniki approached the state in 1992, there was little warning time given before he made landfall.

Birchard explained that given the technological advancements of the last 30 years in radar, satellite, model data and forecasting techniques, it is unlikely that a similar scenario will occur today with a time delay of short warning.

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Hurricane Iniki claimed six lives and $3.1 billion in damage. It was the costliest hurricane in Hawaii’s history and the second costliest hurricane in the Pacific behind Hurricane Manuel which hit Mexico in 2013.

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