Is Trending Stock Macy’s, Inc. (M) a buy it now?

Macy’s (M) has been one of the most searched stocks on Zacks.com lately. So, you might want to consider some of the facts that could shape the stock’s performance in the short term.

Over the past month, shares of this department store operator have returned -19.6%, compared to the -1% change in the Zacks S&P 500 composite. Regional stores, in which Macy’s falls, lost 30.6%. The key question now is: what could be the future direction of the title?

Although media reports or rumors of a material change in a company’s business outlook usually cause its stock to trend and result in an immediate price change, there are always certain fundamental factors that ultimately determine the buy and hold decision.

Revisions to earnings estimates

Rather than focusing on anything else, at Zacks we prioritize assessing change in a company’s earnings projection. Indeed, we believe that the fair value of its shares is determined by the present value of its future earnings streams.

Our analysis is primarily based on how sell-side analysts covering the stock revise their earnings estimates to reflect the latest trading trends. When a company’s earnings estimates increase, the fair value of its stock also increases. And when the fair value of a stock is higher than its current market price, investors tend to buy the stock, causing its price to rise. For this reason, empirical studies indicate a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and short-term movements in stock prices.

Macy’s is expected to post earnings of $0.87 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -32.6%. Over the past 30 days, the Zacks consensus estimate has changed by -1.6%.

For the current year, the consensus earnings estimate of $4.62 indicates a change of -13% from the prior year. Over the last 30 days, this estimate has changed by -0.8%.

For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $4.50 indicates a -2.5% change from what Macy’s is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed by -1.4%.

With a strong externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool, Zacks Rank, provides a more conclusive picture of a stock’s price direction in the short term, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. . Due to the magnitude of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, Macy’s is ranked Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

The chart below shows the evolution of the company’s consensus 12-month EPS estimate:

12 month EPS

Expected revenue growth

Although earnings growth is arguably the most superior indicator of a company’s financial health, nothing as such happens if a company is unable to increase revenue. After all, it is almost impossible for a company to increase its profits for an extended period of time without increasing its revenue. It is therefore important to know the potential revenue growth of a company.

For Macy’s, the current quarter sales consensus estimate of $5.53 billion indicates a year-over-year change of -2.2%. For the current and future fiscal years, the estimates of $24.63 billion and $24.76 billion indicate variations of +0.7% and +0.5%, respectively.

Latest reported results and history of surprises

Macy’s reported revenue of $5.35 billion last quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +13.6%. EPS of $1.08 for the same period versus $0.39 a year ago.

Compared to the Zacks consensus estimate of $5.35 billion, reported revenue is a surprise +0.05%. Surprise EPS was +31.71%.

The company has exceeded consensus EPS estimates in each of the past four quarters. The company has exceeded consensus earnings estimates every time during this period.

Evaluation

Without considering the valuation of a stock, no investment decision can be effective. Crucial to predicting a stock’s future price performance is whether its current price accurately reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company’s growth prospects.

While comparing the current values ​​of a company’s valuation multiples, such as the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and the price-to-cash flow (P/CF) ratio , along with its own historical values ​​help determine whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued or undervalued, comparing the company against its peers on these metrics gives a good idea of ​​the reasonableness of the stock price .

The Zacks Value Style Score (part of the Zacks Style Scores system), which pays close attention to traditional and unconventional valuation metrics to rank stocks from A to F (an A is better than a B; a B is better than a C; and so on), is quite useful in determining whether a stock is overvalued, correctly priced, or temporarily undervalued.

Macy’s is rated A on this front, indicating that it is trading at a discount to its peers. Click here to see values ​​for some of the rating metrics that led to this rating.

Conclusion

The facts discussed here and plenty of other information about Zacks.com might help determine whether it’s worth paying attention to the market buzz about Macy’s. However, its Zacks No. 2 ranking suggests it could outperform the broader market in the near term.

Zacks names ‘only one best choice for doubling up’

From thousands of stocks, 5 Zacks experts have each picked their favorite to skyrocket by +100% or more in the coming months. Of these 5, Research Director Sheraz Mian selects one to have the most explosive advantage of all.

It’s a little-known chemical company that’s up 65% year-on-year, but still very cheap. With relentless demand, rising earnings estimates for 2022 and $1.5 billion for stock buybacks, retail investors could jump in at any moment.

This company could rival or surpass other recent Zacks stocks which are expected to double, such as Boston Beer Company which jumped +143.0% in just over 9 months and NVIDIA which jumped +175.9% in one. year.

Free: See our best stock and our 4 finalists >>

Click to get this free report

Macy’s, Inc. (M): Free Stock Analysis Report

To read this article on Zacks.com, click here.

Zacks Investment Research

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Comments are closed.