Low pressure trying to develop NE of Jacksonville – 104.5 WOKV
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REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE APPROACHES: Tape on windows is * NOT * helpful and will not prevent glass from shattering … and realize that the cone is the average forecast error over a period of time – up to 5 days – and * only * indicate the width of the storm and / or the damage so do not focus on the center of a tropical system.
There are no named storms over the Atlantic for the first time since September 16. The last NHC advisories were issued on “Victor” Monday. & “Sam” Tue of this week.
Low pressure slowly trying to develop northeast of Jacksonville and just off the coast of Carolina, with any development being very slow to occur. The low will move north / northeast just off the coast of Carolina over the weekend before moving northeasterly more rapidly early next week. Gusty winds and heavy rain can be expected for the Outer Banks of North Carolina over the weekend.
We will also have to watch parts of the Caribbean and / or Gulf of Mexico longer term, but there is nothing “cooking” at this time.
Recently…. 5 years ago this week, Hurricane Matthew was moving north just off the east coast of Florida. Matthew’s closest approach to Jacksonville was around noon on October 7, 45 miles east of Jacksonville Beach, where the pier was heavily damaged as it is still under repair today. Matthieu has become a Cat. Hurricane 5 September 30 over the southeastern Caribbean – the first Cat. 5 on the Atlantic Basin since “Felix” in 2007. More info. in the “Buresh Blog” * here *. The map below shows Matthew’s track very close to the Florida coast:
An unfavorable MJO phase in the Atlantic basin is slowly changing / evolving. There has been a lot of “descending” air (brown lines) over the Atlantic Basin, which does not generally support much of tropical development (there may be exceptions!). * But * the rising air (green lines) will likely spread over the Atlantic as we move through October, leading to a potentially active 2nd to last month of hurricane season in the Atlantic. During this evolution we will need to monitor the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico and the southwest Atlantic where we are already getting occasional – albeit inconsistent – clues of tropical development from long-range models.
Ocean temperatures. staying “in shape” to help maintain tropical cyclones.
Sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic are now near above average. across much of the basin (2nd image below) and – even more important – the deep ocean heat content (which helped “feed” Ida and Sam) is impressive and the “equivalent ocean heat content” – namely the average depth temperature in the upper 300 m (~ 984 feet) – is even more impressive from Africa to the Gulf of Mexico. Such a temperature of the ocean water. The model is conducive to long-trajectory deep tropical Atlantic tropical cyclones and may lead to a more favorable regime for cycles of rapid intensification. From an AMS research paper in ’08 Mainelli, DeMaria, Shay, Goni: “The results show that for a large sample of Atlantic storms, variations in OHC have a small but positive impact on intensity forecasts. However, for intense storms, the effect of OHC is much more significant, suggesting its importance on the rapid intensification. The OHC input improved the mean intensity errors of the SHIPS forecast by up to 5% for all Category 5 storm cases, and up to 20% for individual storms, with the maximum improvement for the 72 forecast. -96 hours. The statistical results obtained indicate that the OHC only becomes important when it has values much higher than that required to withstand a tropical cyclone.. “More recent research continues to indicate similar correlations.
Saharan dust. Dry air – yellow / orange / red / pink. Widespread dust indicates dry air which can hamper the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna ‘be” waves will just wait to reach the other side of the plume and then try to develop if all else is right. In my opinion, we talk too much about the presence of Saharan dust and its link with tropical cyclones.
Names 2021 ….. “Wanda” is the next last name on the Atlantic list (names are randomly chosen by the World Meteorological Organization … repeat every 6 years … historic storms are removed (Florence and Michael in 18 … Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ’20). Last year – 2020 – had a record 30 named storms. WMO decided from this year that the Greek alphabet will no longer be used and there will instead be an additional list of names if the first list is exhausted (only happened twice – 2005 & 2020) More information on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.
Medium and high altitude windshear analysis (tropical cyclone enemy) (CIMMS). Red lines indicate strong shear:
Water vapor imaging (dark blue indicates dry air):
The heat content of the deep oceans continues to increase in the Gulf, the Caribbean and the tropical deep Atlantic and has become quite impressive from the central / northwestern Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico:
Sea surface temperature. Anomalies:
Surface map of the SE of the United States:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Gulf surface analysis:
Forecast of GFS waves at 48 and 72 hours (2 and 3 days):
Forecast of the wave period of the Atlantic Basin for 24, 48 and 72 hours respectively:
The East Pacific:
West pacific Infrared satellite:
Global tropical activity:
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