Many eastern tropical Atlantic storms – 104.5 WOKV

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REMEMBER ON THE APPROACH OF A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE: Tape on windows is *NOT* helpful and will not prevent glass from shattering.

Realize that the forecast cone (“cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given period – up to 5 days – and *does not indicate* the width of the storm and/or damage that could occur.

A summary ‘nuts and bolts’ with ‘Nicole’ in the ‘Buresh Blog’ *here* – ‘The November Nemesis that was Nicole’.

There are no areas of concern at the moment throughout the Atlantic basin…

Next week – a strong upper level trough will cross the US Lower 48. At or near the base of the trough, low pressure is likely to form. Long-range forecast models indicate that this low will lie anywhere from the central Gulf inland along the Gulf Coast/Southeastern United States. The depression will then move a little to the northeast and end over the western Atlantic. *At this time* it does not appear that the depression is tropical, but could have hybrid (subtropical) characteristics before the system – as long as the depression is over the gulf relative to land – lands somewhere mid to late next week although there is little agreement between the long-range global forecast models at this point. In any case, significant tropical development is unlikely, although the minimum should improve precipitation in parts of the southern and southeastern United States.

There is also a large storm area over the tropical Southeast Atlantic that will move little over the next few days. Tropical development is unlikely as the shear is strong.

The water vapor loop shows pockets of dry air (dark blue) in parts of the Atlantic Basin, along with numerous “eddies” (low pressure) as well as “bands” of higher humidity near and ahead fronts – common once deep in autumn.

Origins of the November tropical cyclone:

Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin through November:

Wind shear:

The Saharan dust spreads every year towards the west from Africa by the prevailing winds (east to west over the Atlantic). Air dry – yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that can hamper the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “waiting to be” waves will simply wait to get to the other side of – or away from – the plume, and then try to grow if other conditions are right. In my opinion, there is far too much talk about the presence of Saharan dust and its link to tropical cyclones. In any case, several large dust plumes spread west towards the Caribbean and the Gulf with the Saharan dust peak generally in June and July.

2022 names….. “Owen” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are randomly selected by the World Meteorological Organization…repeat every 6 years). Historical storms are removed [Florence & Michael in ’18… Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20 & Ida in ‘21]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous with “Charley”, “Frances”, “Jeanne” and “Ivan” removed from the 2004 list (all affected in Florida) and “Matthew” was removed in 2016. WMO decided – as of last year – that the Greek alphabet will no longer be used and that there will instead be an additional list of names if the first list is exhausted (this did not happen). produced only three times – 2005, 2020 and 2021). Tropical cyclone naming began consistently in 1953. Read more about tropical cyclone naming history *here*.

Eastern Atlantic:

Middle and upper wind shear analysis (enemy of tropical cyclones) (CIMMS). Red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imaging (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep ocean heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean and deep tropical Atlantic:

Sea surface temperature anomalies:

US US surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Gulf surface analysis:

Caribbean:

GFS wave forecast at 48 & 72 hours (2 & 3 days):

Wave period forecasts in the Atlantic Basin for 24, 48 and 72 hours respectively:

The Eastern Pacific:

West Pacific:

Global tropical activity:

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