Shopify Inc. (SHOP) is a Trending Stock: Facts to Know Before You Bet on It

Shopify (SHOP) is one of the most viewed stocks by visitors lately. So it might be worth looking at some of the factors that could affect the stock’s short-term performance.

Shares of this cloud-based trading company have returned -18.6% over the past month compared to the -12.5% ​​change in the Zacks S&P 500 composite. The industry Zacks Internet – Services, to which belongs to Shopify, lost 16.3% over this period. Now the key question is: where could the stock be heading in the near term?

Although press releases or rumors about a substantial change in a company’s business outlook will usually “trend” its stock and cause an immediate price change, there are always fundamental facts that ultimately dominate the take. purchase and retention decision.

Revisions to earnings estimates

At Zacks, we prioritize evaluating change in a company’s future earnings projection over anything else. This is because we believe that the present value of its future income stream is what determines the fair value of its stock.

We basically look at how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to reflect the impact of the latest trading trends. And if earnings estimates increase for a company, the fair value of its shares increases. A higher fair value than the current market price stimulates investors’ interest in buying the stock, causing its price to rise. This is why empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price movements.

Shopify is expected to post earnings of $0.84 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -62.5%. Over the past 30 days, the Zacks consensus estimate has changed by -15.2%.

The current year earnings consensus estimate of $3.05 indicates a year-over-year change of -52.4%. This estimate has changed by -4.7% over the last 30 days.

For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $4.21 indicates a change of +38.1% from what Shopify is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed by +107.7%.

With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool – the Zacks Ranking – is a more conclusive indicator of a stock’s short-term price performance, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. . The magnitude of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, resulted in a Zacks #3 (hold) ranking for Shopify.

The chart below shows the evolution of the company’s consensus 12-month EPS estimate:

12 month EPS

Expected revenue growth

Although earnings growth is arguably the most superior indicator of a company’s financial health, nothing as such happens if a company is unable to increase revenue. After all, it is almost impossible for a company to increase its profits for an extended period of time without increasing its revenue. It is therefore important to know the potential revenue growth of a company.

In the case of Shopify, the consensus sales estimate of $1.39 billion for the current quarter indicates a year-over-year change of +24.3%. Estimates of $5.94 billion and $7.81 billion for the current and next fiscal year indicate changes of +28.7% and +31.5%, respectively.

Latest reported results and history of surprises

Shopify reported revenue of $1.2 billion in the last quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +21.7%. EPS of $0.20 for the same period versus $2.01 a year ago.

Compared to the Zacks consensus estimate of $1.24 billion, reported revenue is a surprise -3.27%. The EPS surprise was -75%.

In the past four quarters, Shopify has exceeded consensus EPS estimates twice. The company has exceeded consensus earnings estimates twice during this period.


Without considering the valuation of a stock, no investment decision can be effective. Crucial to predicting a stock’s future price performance is whether its current price accurately reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company’s growth prospects.

While comparing the current values ​​of a company’s valuation multiples, such as the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and the price-to-cash flow (P/CF) ratio , along with its own historical values ​​help determine whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued or undervalued, comparing the company against its peers on these metrics gives a good idea of ​​the reasonableness of the stock price .

As part of the Zacks Style Scores system, the Zacks Value Style Score (which assesses both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics) organizes stocks into five groups ranging from A to F (A is better than B; B is better than C; and so on.), which is useful in determining whether a stock is overvalued, correctly valued, or temporarily undervalued.

Shopify is rated D on this front, indicating that it trades at a premium to its peers. Click here to see values ​​for some of the rating metrics that led to this rating.


The facts discussed here and plenty of other information about might help determine whether it’s worth paying attention to the market buzz about Shopify. However, its No. 3 Zacks ranking suggests it could perform in line with the broader market in the near term.

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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