Thunderstorm chances increase by Saturday evening; Bad weather is possible

A few spotty showers and an isolated thunderstorm are possible in Minnesota and western Wisconsin by mid-afternoon, then thunderstorm chances increase late Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening as a low-pressure system enters the region. western Minnesota.

At this point, the daylight hours on Sunday seem pretty quiet.

Severe Weather Outlook

The NWS Storm Prediction Center shows a slight risk (shaded in yellow) of severe weather in parts of northern Minnesota later Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening:

Saturday night severe weather outlook for Minnesota and Wisconsin

NWS Storm Prediction Center/NWS Twin Cities

Low risk means scattered severe thunderstorms are possible. An isolated severe thunderstorm is possible very late this afternoon and evening in the dark green shaded area, including the Twin Cities.

You can track showers and thunderstorms on the new interactive radar on the MPR News weather page. You can pan and zoom the radar view on our site to see rain at your location, throughout Minnesota, western Wisconsin and beyond.

We’ve updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio News Network and the MPR News live weather blog.

Temperature trends

The average high temperature for our twin cities is 73 degrees this time of year. Saturday afternoon highs will reach the lower 80s in parts of the Twin Cities metro area, southern Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin. Much of Minnesota will have highs on Saturday in the 70s, but far northern Minnesota will have highs in the 60s. Dew points will be sticky this Saturday in central and southern Minnesota as well as in the western Wisconsin.

Sunday highs will be mostly in the 70s, with a few 60s in northeast Minnesota:

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Highs expected on Sunday

National Weather Service

Many areas will have Sunday afternoon dew points in the 50s, with sticky 60s in southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin:

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Sunday 1 p.m. dew point forecast

National Weather Service

Back to high temperatures, highs for the Twin Cities metro area are expected to be around 80 degrees on Monday, followed by high 80s on Tuesday, low 70s on Wednesday and low 60s on Thursday and Friday.

We are not expecting extreme heat or cold during the last week of September. The NWS Climate Prediction Center shows a trend of near-normal temperatures across most of Minnesota and Wisconsin from September 24-30:

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Temperature outlook for September 24 to September 30

NWS Climate Prediction Center

Fiona will become a hurricane on Sunday

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Fiona Saturday Morning Satellite Loop

NOAA

Tropical Storm Fiona is expected to become a hurricane this weekend. A hurricane warning has been issued for Puerto Rico.

Here’s the latest update on Fiona, from the National Hurricane Center:

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fiona Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 1100 AM AST Sat 17 Sep 2022 …HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO… …HEAVY RAINS LIKELY TO PRODUCE FLOODS AND LANDSLIDES BACKGROUND IN PARTS OF PUERTO RICO. .. SUMMARY INFORMATION FROM 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC… ——————————— – ————- LOCATION…16.3N 63.5W APPROXIMATELY 130 MI…210 KM SE OF ST. CROSS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H CURRENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS ——————– CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A hurricane warning has been issued for Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra. A hurricane watch has been issued for the US Virgin Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A hurricane warning is in effect for… * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra A hurricane watch is in effect for… * United States Virgin Islands * South Coast of Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano west to Cabo Caucedo * North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano west to Puerto Plata A tropical storm warning is in effect for… * Saba and Saint -Eustache * Saint-Martin * Guadeloupe, Saint-Barthélemy and Saint-Martin * United States Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano west to Cabo Caucedo * North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano west to Puerto Plata A tropical storm watch is in effect for… hurricane are expected somewhere in the warning area. A warning is usually issued 36 hours before the first expected occurrence of tropical storm-force winds, conditions that make outdoor preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property must be completed in haste. A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area. A watch is usually issued 48 hours before the first expected occurrence of tropical storm-force winds, conditions that make outdoor preparations difficult or dangerous. A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning zone within 36 hours. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area, usually within 48 hours. Interests in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas are expected to monitor Fiona’s progress. For storm information specific to your region in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your region outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your National Weather Service. DISCUSSION AND PERSPECTIVES ———————- Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the center of Fiona s reformed further east. As of 11:00 a.m. AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was located near latitude 16.3 north and longitude 63.5 west. Fiona is moving west at almost 8 mph (13 km/h). A west-northwestward motion at a similar speed is expected to begin later in the day, followed by a northwesterly turn by Sunday evening. On the forecast track, Fiona’s center is expected to move near or south of the Virgin Islands tonight, approach Puerto Rico tonight, and move near or over Puerto Rico Sunday evening. Fiona is then expected to move near the Dominican Republic on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next few days and Fiona is expected to become a hurricane by Sunday or Sunday evening as it moves near Puerto Rico. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 km from the center. Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicates that the minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 in). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ———————- Key messages for Tropical Storm Fiona can be found in the tropical cyclone discussion under the heading AWIPS MIATCDAT2 and OMM WTNT42 KNHC header and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in Puerto Rico Sunday and Sunday evening and are possible in the US Virgin Islands this evening. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Dominican Republic hurricane watch area Sunday evening and Monday. Tropical storm conditions will continue over parts of the Leeward Islands in the warning area until this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions will reach the United States and the British Virgin Islands this afternoon, move west across Puerto Rico this evening and reach parts of the Dominican Republic Sunday evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Dominican Republic watch area Sunday evening. RAINFALL: Fiona is expected to produce the following precipitation: Leeward Islands and North Windward Islands: An additional 2-4 inches. British and US Virgin Islands: 4 to 6 inches with a local maximum of 10 inches possible. Puerto Rico: 12 to 16 inches with a local maximum of 20 inches possible, especially in eastern and southern Puerto Rico. Dominican Republic: 4 to 8 inches with a local maximum of 12 inches possible, especially on the far eastern coast. Haiti: 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches. Turks and Caicos: 4 to 6 inches. These rains are likely to produce flash and urban flooding, as well as landslides in areas of higher ground, particularly southern and eastern Puerto Rico and eastern Dominican Republic. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising water moving inland from the shore. The water could reach the following heights above the ground somewhere in the areas indicated in the land wind zones if the peak wave occurs at the time of high tide… South coast of Puerto Rico… 1 to 3 feet Vieques and Culebra… 0.1 to 3 feet US Virgin Islands… 1 to 2 feet Localized coastal flooding is also possible elsewhere in Puerto Rico. For information specific to your region, please consult the products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The storm surge will raise water levels up to 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in onshore wind areas in the Dominican Republic. SURF: The swells generated by Fiona affect the Leeward Islands, the northern Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip conditions. Please consult your local meteorological office for products.

Here is Fiona’s predicted path, including the cone of uncertainty for Fiona’s center path:

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Fiona’s predicted trajectory

NWS National Hurricane Center

The National Hurricane Center will be posting several updates from Fiona today and in the coming days.

Weather nugget

So far this year, rainfall at International Falls is one foot above normal. Precipitation is precipitation plus the water content of the snow that fell earlier this year. Duluth’s precipitation is 2.11 inches above normal, and Twin Cities’ precipitation (measured at MSP Airport) is 6.42 inches below normal so far this year.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35am, 9:35am and 4:39pm Saturday and Sunday.

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