Weather Blog – A look at the Thanksgiving weekend forecast

Hello bloggers,

Today is a big day for Rainbow, Sunny, myself and a few third graders at Brookside. They sent me letters a few weeks ago asking me all kinds of questions, and they were so cute. Today, Sunny & Rainbow The Weather Dogs will make their first appearance at a school since the start of the pandemic. Rainbow was just a puppy back then, and now she is two years old. Sunny will remind her how to behave in schools, and we’ll show photos or a video on KSHB-41 tonight.

As we head to Brookside, new data will arrive, and I’ll do a full analysis and update our thoughts for next week. A complex pattern is falling into place for Thanksgiving week. The European model arrived with a stronger holiday weekend storm system, while the other models are still much weaker when it comes to potential travel issues. Confidence is low and we just need a few more days to see how the models evolve. For travel around Kansas City, we see no problem until Wednesday. Here is an overview of the development model.

A possible storm next week:

Next Level Thanksgiving Day

This map above shows the upper level flow forecast for next Thursday, Thanksgiving Day. This shows a storm digging southward into Mexico with Kansas City in the southern branch of the stream. The main jet stream crosses the northern United States and tries to leave this storm behind. In the days that follow, the energy arrives in the western United States and tries to drive this Mexican storm to the plains.

Okay, that’s a version of that storm. There are other versions of the other models, but each model is everywhere and that leaves us with very little confidence as to whether there will be rain or snow in our area. If you’re traveling by Thanksgiving, we don’t see any significant issues. Here is the surface forecast for Wednesday:

Wednesday forecast

Wednesday forecast

This map shows a mostly dry storm system developing on Wednesday. A surface cyclone, or center of low pressure, is expected to be near the Minnesota / South Dakota / Iowa border. The pressure gradient (the nearby black lines that are called isobars) is tight and this will lead to southerly winds and temperatures in the 60s on Wednesday.

Noon Thanksgiving Forecast

Noon Thanksgiving Forecast

On Thanksgiving Day, moisture will be sucked from the Gulf of Mexico and rain will begin to spread over parts of the southern plains. Cooler air will move through the KC area on Thanksgiving Day. And, then, questions will start as to whether it gets more organized on Black Friday and the rest of the holiday weekend. The confidence is so low that I won’t be doing more analysis than that in the blog this morning. Let’s see how the new data comes in today. It can go from a weak storm to a storm with a major impact, but at the same time we can have a tendency for a weaker and disorganized storm that would have little or no impact on travel.

Thank you for sharing this weather experience and spending a few minutes of your day reading the weather blog. We’ll be deepening our weather updates as new data arrives today. Have a great Friday night in the big city.

Gary


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