Weather Blog – Rain and snow forecast with a heavy storm approaching

Hello bloggers,

A strong storm is developing over the western United States and is heading our way. The new LRC is preparing for the season and this storm will be the one we follow throughout next year. This November version of the cycling model is poised to produce severe weather, tornado risk, snow risk, and lots of wind.

What is LRC? The LRC, or Lezak’s Recurring Cycle, was named by you. Yes, this blog in 2003 named my hypothesis the LRC. It is peer reviewed and published. Here are the main aspects of the LRC:

  • A unique pattern takes hold each year in the fall. This means that the pattern in place at this time has never happened before, it is unique
  • Anchoring troughs and ridges are formed. Anchor troughs are where storm systems will most often reach their maximum power. Anchor ridges are where storm systems will most often miss or avoid this region
  • The pattern is always cyclical, and a cycle length develops, settles, and continues through winter, spring, and summer before a new pattern evolves again the following fall.

A unique model is now taking shape. Hurricane season is a perfect example. It was a quiet hurricane season with a major disaster with Hurricane Ian. Suddenly in the past few days there have been two hurricanes, Hurricane Lisa which has now moved inland over Central America, and Hurricane Martin which is now becoming a storm major winter weather over the North Atlantic Ocean. There may be one or more named storms even though hurricane season usually ends now. What suddenly changed? The new LRC is what has changed. These tropical systems are seeds planted for the next hurricane season, not last year. The 20/20 weather predicted a below-average season, and it has been about 25% below average this season in energy as measured by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) score.

This next storm that will bring rain and even a chance of snow to the region will be part of the pattern that will repeat itself this winter, possibly twice. We’ll take a look.

Upper flow forecast for Saturday morning

A strong storm will hit the plains from Friday to Saturday morning. Here is the altitude flow predicted by the NAM model with the GFS (US) model as well:

Upper flow forecast valid at 7 a.m. Saturday

The NAM pattern takes this storm a bit further south and matches the European pattern. The NAM drops the temperature to the mid-30s Saturday morning and allows a shift to snow in Kansas City. What? Yes, this model has snow, but the others follow this path further north or don’t drop temperatures enough. If the upper level storm takes this NAM track, our first snowflakes are possible.

Snow forecast from the NAM model:

Snow forecast from the NAM model

Snow forecast from the NAM model

Surface forecast valid at 7 a.m. Saturday

Surface forecast valid at 7 a.m. Saturday

Strong storm systems develop comma heads. This comma-shaped precipitation pattern, above, shows the comma head just above KC early Saturday morning. The blue tint is snow, and this model produces a 5″ flash of snow just northeast of KC. Will it be cold enough to snow? That’s not out of the question.

We also need more rain and humidity. Here is the rainfall forecast:

Precipitation forecast

Precipitation forecast

Most models tend to forecast 1 to 3 inches of precipitation. Let’s see how the models are trending today.

The timing of the rain has slowed down a bit, which could impact Friday Night Lights football games. We time this on our newscasts on KSHB41 today and tonight. The latest data point to rain and possible thunderstorms Friday evening.

There are also risks of severe weather for the next two days:

Serious risk today

Serious risk today

Serious risk Friday

Serious risk Friday

The risk of severe weather on Friday increases to a level 3 south of KC with a level 1 in 5 here. There is also a risk of a fairly strong tornado:

Tornado Outlook

Tornado Outlook

This tornado risk is centered over northeast Texas with a much lower risk extending north into our region. We will follow this closely.

For today it will be another windy and warm day with highs near 80 degrees. Here is the timeline of today’s weather forecast:

  • Today: Mostly sunny with increasing clouds in the afternoon. South winds 15-30 mph. High: 79°
  • This evening: Becoming cloudy with 60% chance of rain at sunrise. Down: 65°
  • Friday: Cloudy with 100% chance of rain. The rain can sometimes become heavy with the possibility of thunderstorms. The risk of severe thunderstorms is low. The wind will shift to the north at the end of the day. High: 68°
  • Saturday: Cloudy with a chance of rain ending at 9 a.m. Some snow is possible, but more likely near the Iowa border. Down: 37° High: 55°
  • Sunday: Mostly sunny and good weather for the Chiefs tailgating and game. High: 70°

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the weather blog and sharing this weather experience. Have a nice day!

Gary

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