With the NFL schedule now available, here are some valuable accessories from the season
*Full disclosure, for those who remember, I went 9-1 in my NFL Draft props from this blog two weeks ago.
5) Cowboys will win games under 10.5 months
It’s hard for me to peg them to 11 wins with this schedule. They will probably be underdogs in their first two games and I could see them starting 2-4.
11 wins is a lot and I know they won 12 last year, but I don’t trust Mike McCarthy as a coach and this team has continually underperformed expectations. I love that they start over.
4) Seahawks will win games UNDER 5.5 months
Look at this schedule, do you see six wins here? *Russell Wilson on MNF to open the season is a chef’s kiss.
Then consider that Seattle leads the NFL in one-ton air miles!
They have also clearly rebuilt, having dealt with Wilson and parted ways with their defense quarterback Bobby Wagner. All of these factors let me bet on their UNDER win total.
3) Pittsburgh Steelers will win MORE than 7.5 games
This is exactly what Mike Tomlin does. He hasn’t been below .500 his entire time as Steelers head coach and I don’t see that changing this year. Based on their schedule of driving the fewest miles in the league and never leaving their time zone, I could see them winning 9 games. I like a 4-4 start and after their Week 9 bye, I’d pencil them in for five wins, so I like that they erase that number pretty easily.
2) The Philadelphia Eagles qualified for the Playoffs (-110)
The Eagles made the playoffs last year and the NFC as a whole has weakened. Dallas should still be strong but the Giants and Commanders haven’t made enough improvements to dethrone the Eagles as the 2nd best team in the NFC East. And don’t be surprised if the Birds give the boys a run for the division crown. With the acquisition of AJ Brown, this gives them legit firepower on offense. The only question is whether Jalen Hurts can really take the next step. But a run-dominant QB game can be a very successful regular-season strategy and the Eagles seem to be leaning that way under Hurts.
1) New York Jets OVER 5.5 wins (-134)
They’ve added so many key plays this offseason through both the draft and free agency. I also think it’s younger players who will continue to develop. It could be an explosive offense based on the running offense with a young playmaker at QB and a solid defense. I mean, look at this calendar.
It’s a rough start to play all of AFC North the first four weeks, but there’s a certain softness in the back half of their schedule. Goodbye to New England, to Chicago, to Minnesota, to Buffalo, to Detroit, to Jacksonville, to Seattle, to Miami is a great way to end their season. It would be surprising if they got five wins in weeks 9-18, so six for the season seems like an absolute lock.
Below are my five favorite long shots worth sprinkling on. BET VERY RESPONSIBLY WITH THESE. A good success rate here would be 2/5.
Let’s face it, if TJ Watt doesn’t break the sack record, Parsons has a legitimate shot at winning that award last season. With a full year under his belt, I expect Parsons to tear up the league next year. He was already a 1st Team All-Pro as a rookie, so the sky’s the limit for Team USA’s No. 11.
4) The New York Jets for the Playoffs (+725)
After Buffalo, I think the Jets are the 2nd best team in the AFC East next year. I think they have a legitimate chance to make the playoffs before Robert Saleh’s 2nd year. And at +725 that’s a great value.
3) Devin Lloyd wins Defensive Rookie of the Year (+900)
Lloyd was a point guard at Utah. Totaling 111 tackles, 22.0 tackles for loss, 1 forced fumble, 1 fumble recovery, 6 passes defensed, 9.0 sacks, 4 interceptions and 2 touchdowns last year. In the past 10 years, only two traditional Inside Linebackers have won the award (Luke Kuechly and Darius Leonard), but I think Lloyd is absolutely in that category.
2) Tom Brady Wins MVP (+800)
This will probably be Tom Brady’s farewell tour and he probably should have won the MVP title last year! At +800, it’s excellent value for money. While the head coach has changed, the staff has remained intact. They will still lead the Bruce Arians playbook with Byron Leftwich calling the plays, as he did during Tom’s entire time in Tampa.
1) Breece Hall wins Offensive Rookie of the Year (+700)
Shanahan Offense is a gold mine for the Runningbacks. Going back to Terrell Davis, Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, Denver days. We haven’t seen a Runningback of this caliber in Shanahan’s offense since a young Clinton Portis. At +700, he’s absolutely my best bet to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. Michael Carter Jr. has had a great rookie season, but it’s mostly about playing catch-up. Hall will carry the mail and should post monster numbers. I think Hall has a lot of appeal as an early fantasy piece, so I’m very high on the old Cyclone.
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